Semiconductors

Underweight In yesterday's Daily Insight, we highlighted our neutral barbell portfolio in tech, staying overweight secular growth defensive tech sub-sectors (namely S&P software and S&P tech hardware, storage & peripherals, both of which are high-conviction overweights) and…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Stick with a neutral weighting in the tech sector as rising interest rates, higher inflation and a firming greenback offset improving industry operating metrics on the back of the virtuous capex upcycle. Chip and chip equipment stocks will remain under pressure as…

As the SPX and a slew of other indices have vaulted to fresh all-time highs, a deeper dive into profit margins is in order. While the S&P 500's profit margins are benefiting from the one-time fillip of lower corporate taxes in calendar 2018, it is important to remember that this is not…

Underweight This week we have been highlighting winners & losers in a global trade war. With the vast majority of revenues coming from overseas and a high estimated import tariff exposure (please refer to Chart II-5 of the Special Report we published on Monday) semiconductor companies are a…

Highlights The regulatory or "stroke of pen" risk is rising on FAANG stocks - Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google; The U.S. anti-trust regulatory framework was designed to curb anti-competitive actions but has evolved to focus mostly on consumer welfare and prices; A shift toward the…

Highlights With North Korean diplomacy on track, Taiwan is the country most exposed to U.S.-China trade and strategic tensions. The Taiwanese public supports the status quo; however, a majority sees itself as exclusively Taiwanese, and the desire for independence may grow over time. Domestic…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Synchronized global capex growth, a derivative of BCA's synchronized global growth thesis, will be a dominant theme next year, benefiting cyclicals over defensives. Three high-conviction calls are levered to this theme. Higher interest rates on the back of a…

Dear Client, Over the next three weeks, much of BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy team will be traveling in Australia, New Zealand, and Asia. As such, we are taking this week off from publication and will return to our regular schedule next week. In lieu of our regular missive, we are sending you the…

Highlights The structural theme of overweighting technology stocks within the overall equity benchmark, and relative to other cyclical sectors such as commodities and machinery stocks, remains intact. However, in absolute terms, EM tech/semi share prices have become overbought and have already…

After an M&A driven outperformance phase, semiconductor stocks appear to be putting in a major top. M&A activity has plunged, warning that deal premiums are likely to be removed from valuations. The recovery in global chip sales growth also looks to be at risk. Our global chip sales…