Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…
Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-…
Executive Summary Long Small Cap Energy Versus Large Cap President Biden has not received a boost in opinion polls from the Ukraine war. If he has not by now then it is increasingly unlikely that he will do so. Yet Biden…
Due to travel commitments, there will be no Counterpoint report next week. Instead, we will send you a timely update and analysis of the Ukraine Crisis written by my colleague Matt Gertken, BCA Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Executive…
Executive Summary The conflict in Ukraine will grind on until Kiev and the coastal cities fall and Russia is able to seat a government that will keep the country firmly within its sphere of influence. Rallies on slight hopes for an…
Executive Summary On a tactical (3-month) horizon, the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices combined with the choke on growth from sanctions will weigh on both the global economy and the global stock market. As…
Supply-side risks from the Ukraine conflict are causing extreme volatility in global commodity markets. Crude oil, natural gas, nickel, and wheat are among the commodities caught in the crosshairs of the conflict and have all…
Executive Summary A Perfect Metals Storm The bitter truth at the heart of the Ukraine conflict is that the constraints the US and Europe are willing to impose on Russia are not enough to deter it from completing its…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service concluded last Thursday that the risk of Armageddon has risen dramatically. Vladimir Putin has now committed himself to orchestrating a regime change in Kyiv. Anything…