South Korean exports in the first 20 days of July corroborate the signal from Taiwanese export orders that Asian trade conditions remain weak. The former declined by -15.3% y/y, undoing the optimism following a 5.3% y/y increase…
Although not our base case, there is a path for the US economy to avoid a recession over the next few years. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside in the near term but to the downside over a 12-month horizon.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy and European Investment Strategy services, Spain’s economy is outperforming that of the Eurozone thanks to lower inflation and exploding tourism activity. These trends…
Investors have become increasingly more optimistic about the economic outlook. BoA’s Global Fund Manager Survey shows the share of investors surveyed expecting the global economy to experience a soft landing over the next…
The Chinese yuan was among the best performing currencies on Thursday after authorities implemented measures to support the yuan. Specifically, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set its daily fixing at a stronger-than-…
Taiwanese export orders sent a pessimistic signal about the global trade cycle. The contraction deepened in June from -17.6% y/y to -24.9% y/y – delivering a downside surprise to expectations of a 20.3% y/y decline. The…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that the failure of EM stocks, Asian currencies and commodities to stage a broad-based outperformance is consistent with their macro thesis that global trade/…
US speculative-grade corporate bond (junk) spreads rose significantly last year in response to a sharp increase in US interest rates and widespread concerns about a US recession. Junk spreads have since come in from their mid-…
Citigroup’s global economic surprise index has fallen sharply over the past few months and is now slightly negative – indicating that economic data have surprised to the downside. Yet beneath the surface, there is…
Results of the NAHB survey shows US homebuilder sentiment inched further above 50 to a 13-month high of 56 in July. Its ongoing rise above 50 indicates that net sentiment is becoming increasingly favorable. That said,…