Highlights The Evergrande crisis is not China’s Lehman moment. Nonetheless, Chinese construction activity will decelerate further in response to this shock. Global equities are frothy enough that a weaker-than-expected Chinese…
According to the latest MBA weekly survey, mortgage applications increased 4.9% in the week ending September 17. Mortgage applications to purchase a home climbed to the highest level since April. The massive accumulation of…
Chinese residential building starts and sales have been contracting since April and July, respectively. Similarly, the level of aggregate building construction activity appears to be rolling over. The Evergrande debacle presents…
US housing market data surprised to the upside in August. Housing starts increased 3.9% m/m versus expectations of a 1.0% rebound following July’s 6.2% contraction. Similarly, building permits accelerated to 6.0% m/m from 2.3% –…
Today we take a close look at the historical GICS1 level performance following the taper event in 2013. Chart 1 provides an overview of a price action of the 10-year US Treasury yield, the US dollar, and gold to provide context,…
The Evergrade debacle (see Country Focus) underscores the risks facing the global housing market. Ultra-low interest rates are fueling a surge in house prices across the world (see The Numbers). The rapid price increase is making…
The possibility of Chinese real estate developer Evergrande’s collapse threatens the stability of the country’s economy and financial markets through multiple facets. The company accounts for an outsized share of outstanding…
Home prices around the world are continuing their march higher. Canada’s Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index accelerated to 18.4% y/y in August from 17.8%. Similarly, the UK’s Rightmove House Price index advanced 5.…
Please note that next Friday September 24 at 10am EDT, we will host a webcast featuring a debate between my colleague Peter Berezin and me. The topic of debate is whether investors should overweight EM in a global portfolio. Please join…
Feature Chart 1Chinese Offshore Stocks Tumbled Amid Regulatory Crackdowns Relative to the global equity index, onshore and offshore Chinese stocks have fallen by 18% and 32%, respectively, since their peaks in mid-February (…