Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…
Tensions between the West and Russia are intensifying. Although Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated in a televised meeting with President Vladimir Putin that there is still a possibility that diplomatic engagement will…
Executive Summary Inflation Expectations Likely Too Low Inverted term structures for industrial commodities likely are being interpreted as forecasts of lower prices. This leads investors to assume the real economy…
Palladium did not participate in last year’s commodity rally. While industrial commodities such as copper and oil soared by double digits, palladium ended the year 22% lower. However, it is up 23% since the beginning of the…
Highlights In the short term, the US stock market price will track the 30-year T-bond price, with every 10 bps move in the yield moving the stock market and bond price by 2.5 percent. We think that the bond market will not allow the…
The price of gold has been grinding higher since the beginning of December and now stands at a two-month high. The outlook for gold from here is clouded by opposing forces. On the one hand, gold benefits from investors looking to…
Dear client, This is our final report for this year. Clients who missed our FX key views report last week can access the link here. We thank you for your continued readership, and wish you happy and healthy holidays. Kind regards…
Dear Client, This week we present our annual Commodities & Energy Strategy outlook, which contains our key views on the principal markets we cover – energy, base metals and bulks, precious metals, and ags. Over the…
Highlights Tight commodity markets, rising incomes, and constrained logistics networks will continue to push inflation gauges higher, so long as coronavirus mutations don't cause another global economic shutdown. Commodity price…