Populism/Inequality

Executive Summary With the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis materializing, the odds of a major war between the world’s great powers have gone up. Our decision trees suggest the odds are around 20%, or double where they stood from the Russian war in Ukraine alone. The world is playing “Russian…

Executive Summary Biden Taps China-Bashing Consensus Biden's Midterm Tactics Bear Fruit… But There's A Snake…

Executive Summary Italy’s right-wing alliance, led by Brothers of Italy, will likely outperform in  the upcoming election. The new government will prioritize the economy, posing a risk to the EU’s united front against Russia. It is conducive to an eventual ceasefire, which is marginally…

Executive Summary Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas…

Executive Summary Autocracy Hurts Productivity Autocracy Hurts Productivity…

Executive Summary EU Embargoes Russian Oil Energy Cutoff Continues (GeoRisk Update…

Executive Summary Favor ASEAN And The Philippines Favor ASEAN And The Philippines…

Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-Iran talks fail, as we expect, the Middle East will…

Executive Summary Major EM’s Defense Spends Will Be Comparable To That Of Developed Countries Beware EMs That Borrow Too Much Or Wage War…

Executive Summary Brazil: Are Political & Macro Risks Priced-In? Brazil: The Road To Elections Won't Be Paved With Good Intentions…