In Section I, we argue that global investors have been lulled into a false sense of security concerning the resiliency of the US economy. Tight monetary policy means that something must change for a recession to be avoided, and…
Favor defensive sectors, low-beta assets, and long-duration bonds until the election uncertainty is lifted one way or another over the next five months.
Although a strategic détente between the US and China would benefit both sides, BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service warns that the trade war will continue. The team has argued that Biden and Xi would fail to…
Chinese industrial profits rose by 4.0% y/y in April, from a 3.5% y/y contraction in March. They grew by 4.3% in the first four months of the year, compared to the same period in 2023. In March, the central government pledged…
Sentiment among German companies stalled in May, after having firmed for 3 consecutive months. The IFO Business Climate came in at 89.3, unchanged from April, disappointing expectations of further strengthening to 90.4. Although…
Looking at economic activity, global monetary policy seems restrictive, however, the behavior of financial markets tells a different story. What gives?
The signs of an approaching recession are starting to emerge. We will turn tactically defensive once they all fall into place.
Negotiated wages rose 4.7% y/y in Q1, from 4.5% y/y in Q4 in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, preliminary estimates for the Eurozone Composite PMI surprised to the upside in May. Although wage growth is the main driver of services…