Philippines

Preliminary results from the Philippine elections suggest that policy uncertainty and discontinuity will challenge the reform trajectory of a country with one of the best macroeconomic backdrops in the emerging market universe.

The United States and China continue to see relations worsen, particularly over China's activities in the South China Sea. But that is not the only reason geopolitical risk is migrating from the Middle East into Asia Pacific - a trend that investors cannot afford to ignore.

Clients should forgive us for being too gloomy at the start of the year -- it is difficult to be optimistic in the dead of a Montreal winter. However, with springtime comes the reflation trade, born on the wings of massive Chinese fiscal and credit expansion. In this report, we discuss how long (not very) the trade can go (and how to play it). Our In Focus feature returns to pessimism, with a discussion of why the Anglo-Saxon laissez-faire economic model may be in for a big pendulum swing.