Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have…
Executive Summary Lingering Weakness In The Economy Is Reflected In Low Core Inflation The Philippine economy will struggle to gain traction as the fiscal thrust remains negative and monetary policy is tightening.…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service expects Philippine sovereign credit to outperform its EM counterparts. A negative outlook on overall EM sovereign credit warrants overweighting Philippine sovereign credit…
Highlights So far, both the demand and supply side of the Philippine economy have been rather weak; yet there are signs that growth is set to revive. Fiscal expenditures have bottomed. Bank lending is also reviving. Acceleration in…
Highlights Stronger global growth in the wake of continued and expected fiscal and monetary stimulus, and progress against COVID-19 are boosting oil demand assumptions by the major data suppliers for this year. We lifted our…
Highlights All Filipino assets are linked by a common thread: the country’s fiscal balance. The prevalence of interest rate sensitive sectors in its stock market and the dependence on foreign debt inflows has given the country…
Chart II-1Philippine Equities: Relative & Absolute Performance Our underweight stance on Philippine stocks has played out well as this bourse has massively underperformed the EM equity benchmark (Chart II-1, top panel).…
Highlights US market risks stem from both the lack of fiscal stimulus before the new president assumes office in late January. Risk-off moves in US financial markets will weigh on EM. China’s stimulus has peaked and the country…
Feature In this report, we determine which South and Southeast Asian countries are better equipped to endure the COVID-19 pandemic. Answers to this question combined with our macro fundamental analysis lead us to recommend which…