August nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142 thousand workers, from a downwardly revised 89 thousand and below expectations of 165 thousand. Payroll growth fell to a four-year-low of 116 thousand on a 3-month moving average basis.…
The July Employment Situation report had already cemented the case for a September rate cut and Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole comments dispelled any remaining doubt about an imminent monetary easing cycle. All the labor…
The pro-cyclical Eurozone economy is highly exposed to a global downturn, which we expect will materialize by early 2025. The ECB is behind the curve and we thus expect it to ease more aggressively than markets expect next year…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, central banks will continue to be a key source of gold demand. Central bank purchases in the first half of this year exceeded first-half purchases in…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, an increase in borrowing costs will further weaken vulnerable corporate balance sheets. As suggested by their Corporate Health Monitors (CHMs), the health of…
The ongoing rally in ASEAN currencies will fizzle sooner rather than later as they are not supported by fundamentals. The ringgit and the baht, however, will fare better than the peso and the rupiah during the coming global risk-off…
Chinese onshore and offshore bank stocks have outperformed their respective broad markets by 26% and 24% since October. Despite deteriorating return on assets, return on equity and net interest margins, investors have sought out…
The Asian currency index (ADXY index) rose nearly 3% from its late-July lows. While CNY/USD accounted for a large share of these gains, an equal-weighted basket of non-CNY Asian currencies surged by an even larger margin (5%)…
US housing market data have been mixed. In June, the FHFA House Price index unexpectedly declined 0.1% m/m and the NAHB housing market index unexpectedly eased to 39 from a 41 reading. In July, starts and permits both…
Brazilian equities have largely underperformed their EM peers in USD terms since the beginning of the year. Rising public debt and inflation are the two main forces weighing on the Brazilian bourse. Our Emerging Market…