This week has not been short of developments on Chinese policy. After unleashing a monetary policy blitz, the authorities held an unscheduled Politburo meeting resulting in a pledge to take actions towards stabilizing the housing…

  BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service introduced a Global Political Capital Index. Investors should favor countries with newly elected government, small government size, and ample room to cut policy rate. Ideally,…

  US investment grade and high yield spreads have tightened 22 and 75 bps since their August highs. Risk assets have cheered the outsized Fed rate cut as the narrative in markets aligns with the Fed’s conviction it can…

  A US recession remains our base case over a cyclical investment horizon. We expect the ongoing labor market deterioration to eventually tip the economy into a recession. We therefore continue to expect the disinflationary forces…

  The conventional 30-year mortgage rate eased further to 6.2% from above 7% back in the spring, spurring a 20.3% surge in refinancing activity last week. Mortgage applications rose 11.0%, marking a fifth consecutive week of…

  According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Brazil’s decision to raise interest rates is supported by recent economic data. Back in January of this year,  they noted that Brazil would…

  The PBoC announced further measures to stimulate the economy on Tuesday. It lowered the reserve requirement ratio from 10% to 9.5%, cut the 7-day reverse repo rate by 20 bps (following Monday’s 10 bps cut to the 14-day…

  In a widely expected move, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in September. All measures of Australian CPI inflation remain well above the RBA target range. The Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief…

  The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index unexpectedly shed 6.9 points to 98.7 in September. Both the Present Situation and Expectations components declined, by 10.3 and 4.6 points respectively. The decline in morale in…