Mega Themes

Listen to a short summary of this report.       Executive Summary Tighter Financial Conditions May Affect Growth Tighter Financial Conditions May Affect Growth…

Highlights There is no evidence of a decline in US corporate credit or bank lending spreads over the past few decades, meaning that any excess savings effect structurally depressing interest rates is occurring in the Treasury market. We note the possible…

Executive Summary EM Equity Sentiment Is Not Very Depressed Yet Em Equity Sentiment Is Not Very Depressed Yet…

Due to travel commitments, there will be no Counterpoint report next week. Instead, we will send you a timely update and analysis of the Ukraine Crisis written by my colleague Matt Gertken, BCA Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Executive Summary The tight…

Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2% Is A Higher Neutral Rate Good Or Bad For Stocks…

Executive Summary For the Fed, maintaining its credibility with a long sequence of rate hikes that does not crash the economy, real estate market, and stock market is akin to the ‘Hail Mary’ move of (American) football. The likelihood that the Fed…

Dear Client, Next week, in lieu of our regular weekly report, I will be hosting two webcasts where I will discuss our view on China’s economy and financial markets. In particular, I will share our view on the announced economic growth target and stimulus…

Executive Summary Tight Inventories Spike Metals Commodities' Watershed Moment…

Executive Summary On a tactical (3-month) horizon, the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices combined with the choke on growth from sanctions will weigh on both the global economy and the global stock market. As such, bond yields could…

Executive Summary We look at the Ukraine crisis in the broader context of shocks, what we can learn from them, and how we can incorporate them into our strategy for investment, and life in general. Our high-conviction view is that the Ukraine crisis will…