Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?
In a June insight, we discussed the possibility of a sustained lumber rally due in part to resilient housing market activity in the US and supply constraints in Canada, a major exporter of lumber. Since then, prices have remained…
After a dramatic fall from grace over the summer, lumber prices are once again on the rise. They have doubled over the past month alone. Both supply-side and demand-side factors explain the recent rally. On November 24, the US…
Highlights Domestic and foreign supply-side constraints are now exerting a significant effect on the US economy. Consumer prices may increase at a faster pace than we initially expected over the coming 3-4 months, but supply-side…
The lumber market has been booming. After a brief setback in March, prices are on the rise again and have recently surged past the $1500/board feet mark. This performance is in line with the recent 20bps decline in 30-year…
The lumber rally this year has been spectacular. We have been positive on this asset since February and sadly, cut our exposure too early relative to other commodities, five weeks ago. Nonetheless, we cannot ignore what the surge…
Lumber prices have surged recently, boosted by record-low mortgage rates, which have spurred a rise in mortgage applications for purchases to a post-GFC high. Moreover, homebuyers traffic has been quickly recovering, which fueled…
On February 28, we prematurely argued that lumber was attractive because it was less exposed to the global industrial cycle and would benefit from lower interest rates. While lumber did outperform oil, it underperformed copper…
Lumber prices have sharply fallen in sympathy with every asset levered to growth. The recent price decline has purged some of the froth out of that market, which is creating an attractive entry point to buy lumber. Lumber is…
Lumber prices have enjoyed a robust rally since early 2019. A combination of easy US monetary conditions and falling bond yields have created a fertile ground for construction activity, which has forced lumber prices higher…