Latin America
Highlights President Trump has little to do with the ongoing EM selloff; The macro backdrop is the real culprit behind Turkey's woes, particularly the strong dollar... ... Which is a product of global policy divergence, with the U.S. stimulating while…
This week we are publishing Part 1 of an overview of the cyclical profiles of emerging market (EM) economies. This all-in-charts presentation illustrates the business cycle conditions of the largest EMs. The aim of this report is to provide investors with a…
Highlights Without swift and considerable fiscal austerity or aggressive privatization, Brazil's public debt situation will become uncontrollable. Brazilian voters' priorities and preferences are for more public spending, not fiscal austerity. Hence, the…
Highlights Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) will most likely win the upcoming presidential election; His rising popularity has increased the likelihood that his left-wing party MORENA wins the lower Chamber of Congress; That said, his agenda is more "…
Feature Valuations, whether for currencies, equities or bonds, are always at the top of the list of the determinants of any asset's long-term performance. This means that after large FX moves like those experienced so far this year, it is always useful to…
Highlights BCA's Geopolitical Power Index (GPI) confirms that we live in a multipolar world; Most of President Trump's policies are designed to strike out against this structural reality; Trade war with China is real and presents the premier…
Highlights The global trade slowdown will intensify, even if U.S. domestic demand remains robust. The large emerging Asian bourses will recouple to the downside with their EM peers. Market-neutral EM equity portfolios should consider going long consumer…
Highlights Stable global demand; steady declines in Venezuela's crude oil output; and the cumulative loss of 500k b/d of Iranian exports to U.S. sanctions by 2H19 will lift average Brent and WTI prices to $80 and $72/bbl in 2019, respectively (Chart of the…
Highlights So long as EM corporate and sovereign bond yields continue to rise, EM share prices will remain in a downtrend. EM corporate earnings growth has peaked while EM corporate profitability remains structurally weak. We recommend re-establishing a…
Highlights The U.S. dollar still has meaningful upside versus the majority of currencies. We continue to recommend shorting a basket of the following EM currencies versus the U.S. dollar: TRY, ZAR, BRL, IDR, MYR and KRW. Fixed-income investors should…