The Brazilian real has been among the worst performing EM currencies over the past few months, second only to the Turkish lira. Similarly, Brazilian equities peaked in mid-June and have been on a downtrend since. The latest…
Highlights Faced with record low approval ratings, President Bolsonaro will try to cling to his seat by all means possible, and his attacks on state institutions will escalate. This will further destabilize the socio-political…
Chilean assets are set to endure a period of turbulence over the next few months. The rising odds of the victory of popular left-wing presidential candidate Gabriel Boric will continue to alarm markets and place upward pressure…
Highlights Gabriel Boric – a popular independent left-wing candidate – will likely win the presidential elections. Chile’s financial markets will remain very turbulent with a downward bias until the second voting…
Highlights Gold prices will continue to be challenged by conflicting information flows regarding US monetary policy; higher inflationary impulses from commodity prices and supply-chain bottlenecks; global economic policy uncertainty,…
Highlights Asian and European natural gas prices will remain well bid as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches. An upgraded probability of a second La Niña event this winter will keep gas buyers scouring markets for supplies…
Highlights The odds of a stronger recovery in EM oil demand next year are rising, as vaccines using mRNA technology are manufactured locally and become widely available.1 This will reduce local lock-down risks in economies relying on…
Highlights The US Climate Prediction Center gives ~ 70% odds another La Niña will form in the August – October interval and will continue through winter 2021-22. This will be a second-year La Niña if it forms, and…
Highlights The US government issued its first-ever water-shortage declaration for the Colorado River basin in August, due to historically low water levels at the major reservoirs fed by the river (Chart of the Week). The drought…
Peru's financial assets have plummeted due to the election of left-wing president Pedro Castillo. Some investors may be tempted to bottom fish in these markets due to their lower valuations and oversold conditions. However…