Our US Bond Strategy service responds to recent data releases which showed that real economic growth and the labor market are surprisingly resilient, while inflation pressures continued to decline. The 10-year Treasury yield…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
The market does not grasp the implied depths of recessions that will be needed to prevent inflation expectations from un-anchoring. Among the major economies, the most vulnerable to a deep recession is the UK. We explain why, and…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, making inflation imperceptible will require making unemployment perceptible, meaning a recession. Our non-linear world often surprises our linear-thinking minds. For…
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25bps rate hike on Thursday, raising the policy rate to 3.5% — the highest since August 2001. Moreover, the central bank maintained a hawkish bias, signaling…
According to the Exposure Index compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), active risk managers are increasing their net exposure to equities. The range of responses to the weekly survey…
Results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations sent a positive signal about short-term inflation expectations. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations dropped by 0.3 percentage point to a two-year low of…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the leading indicators of inflation continue to point down, suggesting that the Fed may be able to finally go on hold after hiking one last time in July.…
As we’ve highlighted in recent Insights, the S&P 500’s year-to-date rally has been concentrated among a few mega cap stocks. In particular, companies that benefit from the AI craze have driven the gains. This…
The latest increase in US weekly jobless claims came in above consensus estimates. Initial jobless claims jumped to 261 thousand in the week ended June 3 – above expectations of a 235 thousand increase. This marks the…