BCA Research is proud to announce a new feature to help clients get the most out of our research: an Executive Summary cover page on each of the BCA Research Reports. We created these summaries to help you quickly capture the main points…
Highlights The selloff in equities since the start of the year marks a long overdue correction rather than the start of a bear market. Stocks often suffer a period of indigestion when bond yields rise suddenly, but usually bounce back…
Feature Is the worst over for US and EM equities? Clearly, the risk-reward of stocks has somewhat improved, given they are no longer overbought and some bad news has already been priced in. However, conditions for a durable bottom and a…
Highlights The bond market assumes that when recent inflation has been high, it will be higher than average for the next ten years. Yet the reality is the exact opposite. High inflation is followed by lower than average inflation.…
Highlights Global equities are poised to deliver mid-to-high single-digit returns this year, with the outlook turning bleaker in 2023 and beyond. Non-US markets are likely to outperform. We examine the four pillars that have…
Highlights Demand in the major economies remains well below its pre-pandemic trend. Meaning that relative to potential output, demand is lukewarm, at best. Inflation is hot, not because of strong overall demand, but because of the…
US consumer confidence firmed in the preliminary release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for December. The headline index surprised to the upside and gained 3 points to reach 70.4. The improvement comes on…
As expected, US CPI inflation accelerated in November, reaching a 39-year high of 6.8% y/y. Similarly, core inflation rose to a 30-year high of 4.9%. While the low base effect is likely to keep year-on-year growth rates…
As expected, Brazil’s Central Bank lifted the benchmark Selic rate by 150 bps to 9.25% on Wednesday. This move brings the total increase since the beginning of the year to 725 bps. Policymakers also signaled that another…
The gap between Chinese producer and consumer price inflation narrowed in November. PPI growth slowed from 13.5% to 12.9% while consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.3% from 1.5%. The moderation in producer prices reflects…