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Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Le Pen And Other Hurdles (GeoRisk Update…

Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-Iran talks fail, as we…

Executive Summary Long Small Cap Energy Versus Large Cap Investment Takeaways…

Executive Summary The Good: There are compelling reasons to believe the Ukraine war will not break out into a broader NATO-Russia war, i.e. World War III. The Bad: The 1945 peace settlement is breaking down and the world is fundamentally less stable.…

Executive Summary Major EM’s Defense Spends Will Be Comparable To That Of Developed Countries Beware EMs That Borrow Too Much Or Wage War…

Executive Summary Failure Of Iran Deal Tightens Oil Supply Failure Of Iran Deal Tights Oil Supply…

Executive Summary On a tactical (3-month) horizon, the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices combined with the choke on growth from sanctions will weigh on both the global economy and the global stock market. As such, bond yields could…

Executive Summary Russia Not Prepared To Invade West Ukraine Yet Imbalance Of Terror (GeoRisk Update…

Executive Summary We look at the Ukraine crisis in the broader context of shocks, what we can learn from them, and how we can incorporate them into our strategy for investment, and life in general. Our high-conviction view is that the Ukraine crisis will…

Executive Summary From Nixon-Mao To Putin-Xi From Nixon-Mao To Putin-Xi…