High-Yield
Highlights Economic Outlook: Global growth will stay strong over the next 12 months, with the U.S. surprising on the upside. Unfortunately, the global economy will succumb to a recession in 2019. Stagflation will become a major problem in the 2020s. Portfolio Strategy: We are sticking with our…
Highlights Chart 1Tax Reform Is A Bear-Steepener
Tax Reform Is A Bear-Steepener…
Highlights Beige Book highlights disconnect between inflation words and inflation data. Peak in auto sales is not a harbinger of recession. Capital spending still trending higher. Inflation and inflation surprise will need to move higher before Fed hikes again. Big disconnect between 10-…
Highlights Chart 1"Trump Trade" Progress Report
"Trump Trade" Progress Report…
Highlights U.S. Tax Cuts: The ongoing turmoil in the White House, and the negative impact it is having on the popularity ratings of both President Trump and the Republican-led U.S. Congress, will intensify efforts to get a tax cut package done as quickly as possible. Success on this front will…
Highlights A number forward-looking indicators for EM corporate profits point to a major deceleration in the next several months, and potentially a contraction early next year. The most reliable forward-looking indicators for EM EPS have been EM/China narrow and broad money growth and they…
Highlights GFIS Portfolio: The GFIS model bond portfolio has lagged its benchmark index since inception last September and since our previous performance update in April. All of that underperformance can be accounted for this month, however, given the risk-off moves seen in global financial…
Highlights Chart 1Too Close For Comfort
Too Close For Comfort…
Highlights Near record high levels for stocks are not an impediment to gains in the stock-to-bond ratio in the next 12 months. Minutes from June's FOMC meeting confirmed that policymakers agree that monetary policy should continue to normalize in the coming quarters. None of the main…
Highlights The long-term interests of both Chinese policymakers and foreign investors are aligned regarding the Chinese onshore bonds. There is a strong case for higher demand for Chinese bonds going forward. The Bond Connect program may not immediately lead to a massive influx of foreign…