High-Yield

Highlights Duration: Last week's bond market rout was driven by strong U.S. data. Global growth (ex. U.S.) continues to weaken. Weak foreign growth that migrates stateside via a stronger dollar remains the biggest risk to our below-benchmark duration stance. For now, we prefer to hedge that…

Highlights Chart 1Second Half Rebound Second Half Rebound…

Highlights Duration: The housing market is the key channel through which monetary policy impacts the economy. As such, it is unlikely that Treasury yields will peak until housing shows meaningful weakness. While residential investment has decelerated in recent quarters, we expect this weakness…

Highlights A sovereign debt default in Argentina is unlikely in the next 12 months, the primary reason being IMF financing. The peso and the stock market appear close to two standard deviations cheap. Consequently, it makes sense to argue that financial market adjustments in Argentina are…

Highlights Chart 1Wage Growth Playing Catch-Up To Curve Wage Growth Playing Catch-Up To Curve…

Highlights It has not been a lot of fun being a corporate bond investor in 2018. Global credit markets have struggled to deliver positive returns, amid a news flow that has been overwhelming at times. Geopolitical uncertainty, shifting monetary policy biases, greater inflation pressures,…

Highlights Chart 1Yield Curve Suggests GDP Growth Has Peaked Yield Curve Suggests GDP Growth Has Peaked…

Dear Client, Geopolitical analysis is a fundamental part of the investment process. My colleague, and BCA's Chief Geopolitical Strategist, Marko Papic will introduce a one-day specialized course - Geopolitics & Investing - to our current BCA Academy offerings. This special inaugural…

Highlights Global Growth: The divergence between strong U.S. and weak non-U.S. growth will increase in the coming months and culminate in wider credit spreads. The Fed's reaction to wider credit spreads will determine how Treasuries perform. High-Yield: High-Yield bonds will deliver excess…

Highlights We have been cautious on asset allocation on a tactical (3-month) horizon for two months. The backdrop has deteriorated enough that we believe that caution is now warranted beyond a tactical horizon. Trim exposure to global stocks to benchmark and place the proceeds in cash on a…