Highlights The surge in energy prices going into the Northern Hemisphere winter – particularly coal and natgas prices in China and Europe – will push inflation and inflation expectations higher into the end of 1Q22 (Chart of…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service fiscal drag is probably overstated as governments are likely to increase deficit spending on the margin. US Congress is likely to pass Biden’s $550 billion bipartisan…
Highlights The fourth quarter will be volatile as China still poses a risk of overtightening policy and undermining the global recovery. US political risks are also elevated. A debt default is likely to be averted in the end. Fiscal…
On Monday, Senate Republicans blocked a bill that would have extended federal funding to early December, provided emergency relief, and suspended the debt ceiling until December 2022. Democrats are now facing a tight deadline.…
The Turkish central bank surprised investors with a 100-basis point rate cut on Thursday, bringing the one-week repo rate down to 18%. The decision comes despite rising inflation. Headline CPI has been steadily climbing since…
The performance of global risk assets improved somewhat on Tuesday following Monday’s tumble on the back of concerns about the potential implications of an Evergrande default. Nevertheless, risks remain elevated. A key…