Highlights Several factors point to both an improvement and a deterioration in economic and financial market conditions, underscoring that the 6- to 12-month investment outlook is unavoidably uncertain. On the one hand, the US will…

Listen to a short summary of this report.         Executive Summary Small Caps Are Looking Attractive Relative To Their Large Cap Peers  Adverse supply shocks have pushed down global growth this year…

Special Report

Executive Summary The Declining Value Of An Old Friendship  India may buy cheap oil from Russia, but oil alone cannot expand this partnership. India needs to maintain a balance of power against China and Pakistan. With…

Executive Summary The unemployment rate in the US stands at 3.6%, 0.4 percentage points below the FOMC’s estimate of full employment. Historically, the Fed’s efforts to nudge up the unemployment rate have failed: The US…

Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds  Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…

Executive Summary China’s Business Cycle Has Not Bottomed  Recent data showed a substantial improvement in the economy in the first two months of the year. However, the optimism is not well supported by other industry and…

Special Report

Executive Summary The Good: There are compelling reasons to believe the Ukraine war will not break out into a broader NATO-Russia war, i.e. World War III. The Bad: The 1945 peace settlement is breaking down and the world is…

Special Report

Executive Summary Major EM’s Defense Spends Will Be Comparable To That Of Developed Countries ​​​​ Tectonic geopolitical trends are taking shape in Emerging Markets (EMs) today that will leave an indelible imprint on the…

Dear Client, Next week, in lieu of our regular weekly report, I will be hosting two webcasts where I will discuss our view on China’s economy and financial markets. In particular, I will share our view on the announced economic…

Special Report

Highlights The buildup of excessive household debt in Canada over the past two decades has occurred because of outsized demand for housing, not because of the impact of constrained housing supply on house prices. Outsized demand for…