In Section I, we examine some concerning signs of US economic weakness that emerged in June. We also discuss portfolio positioning in the face of falling interest rates and cross-check our recommended US equity overweight in the face…
Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?
Eurozone equities sold off 7% from their June 6 highs, according to MSCI indices. The surprise French legislative elections and renewed fears of populism and European Union exits are spooking investors. Yet, our European…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the South African election presents a window of opportunity for productivity-boosting structural reforms, such as privatization, to coincide with monetary and…
Chinese new loans grew from CNY 10.2 tr to CNY 11.1tr in May, disappointing expectations of CNY 11.3tr. Year-to-date aggregate financing also came short of anticipations, growing from CNY 12.7tr to CNY 14.8tr. Notably, the…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, it is an overstatement to assert that China’s subsidies are the main driver of its green energy industries’ competitiveness. It is commonly…
MORENA has once again swept the Mexican election: Claudia Sheinbaum will be president, with little to no constraint in Congress. All in all, Mexican politics will remain stable and overall supportive of markets. In the medium term,…
The US economy is in the “Overheating” phase, so stronger growth brings higher inflation. Tight monetary policy means recession is still likely over the next 12 months. Stay defensive.
BCA developed the Debt Supercycle thesis in the 1970s to characterize the postwar surge in private sector indebtedness. Because rising debt burdens increased economic vulnerability, policymakers were forced to pursue increasingly…
Sentiment among German companies stalled in May, after having firmed for 3 consecutive months. The IFO Business Climate came in at 89.3, unchanged from April, disappointing expectations of further strengthening to 90.4. Although…