The Fed’s Beige Book compiles qualitative input sourced from business and other organizational contacts in each of its 12 Districts. It precedes FOMC meetings by a couple of weeks and is meant to help participants trace the…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy Service, China has been accumulating high-value memory semiconductors in anticipation of further US restrictions. Since October 2022, the US has been tightening rules…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, there are two main pressure points that the US can utilize against China. First, the US consumer market is the largest in the world. Despite having diversified away…
The risk-on soft-landing narrative dominated investors’ psyche last month and pro-cyclical assets topped the August return ranking. Asian currencies led the pack by a wide margin, while the dollar was the largest laggard…
US nominal personal income growth accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% in July, faster-than-anticipated, whereas personal spending accelerated from 0.3% to 0.5%, in line with expectations. The savings rate edged lower from 3.1% to a…
Tokyo’s CPI is a timely leading indicator of nationwide price pressures. In August, the headline, core (ex-food) and the “core core” (ex-food and energy) measures all accelerated by larger-than-expected margins…
According to our Bank Credit Analyst service, an inflection point in the relative performance of US stocks is not likely to occur over the coming 6-12 months. A recession favors US equities in common currency terms barring…
