Geopolitics
Democrats To Retain Control Of The Senate…
France: More Than Just Déjà-Vu…
Highlights Barring major surprises, President Macron will be re-elected in 2022. Any dramatic reversal in the pandemic that leads to a new recession would benefit the opposition candidate. Otherwise, Macron will remain the frontrunner. A second term for…
Highlights Three distinct forces are likely to make South Asia’s geopolitical risks increasingly relevant to global investors. First, India’s tensions with China stem from China’s growing foreign policy assertiveness and India’s shift away from…
Highlights The US is withdrawing from the Middle East and South Asia and making a strategic pivot to Asia Pacific. The third quarter will see risks flare around Iran and the US rejoin the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. The result is briefly negative for oil…
Highlights Now that the dust has settled on the hotly contested 2020 election, we introduce our revised and updated quantitative presidential election model. We will periodically update the model as a gauge of President Biden’s political capital as well…
Takeaways From France’s Regional Elections…
Iranian Presidential Election Sees Record Low Turnout As Regime Hand-Picks A Hardliner…
Highlights China’s Communist Party has overcome a range of challenges over the past 100 years, performed especially well over the past 42 years, but the macro and geopolitical outlook is darkening. The “East Asian miracle” phase of Chinese growth has…
Highlights The US Innovation and Competition Act shows that the US is rediscovering industrial policy amid domestic populism and foreign geopolitical risk. Fiscal accommodation is a basis for the economy to improve, political polarization to…