Highlights The August 1 deadline for Congress to raise the debt ceiling will come and go but the looming debt showdown will not replay the 2011-13 crisis. It is not a major risk to the bull market. The Biden administration still…
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy has just introduced its revised Quantitative Senate Election model. The six-variable model measures the probability of the incumbent party (Democratic Party) retaining the Senate in the…
The French presidential election is nine months away, and it is already starting to catch investors’ attention as one of the main political events in Europe in 2022. According to BCA Research’s European Investment…
Highlights Three distinct forces are likely to make South Asia’s geopolitical risks increasingly relevant to global investors. First, India’s tensions with China stem from China’s growing foreign policy assertiveness…
Highlights The US is withdrawing from the Middle East and South Asia and making a strategic pivot to Asia Pacific. The third quarter will see risks flare around Iran and the US rejoin the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. The result is…
Iran held its presidential election on June 20. Islamic cleric and regime hardliner Ebrahim Raisi won the election as expected, with 62% of the vote. Voter turnout fell from 70% in 2017 to 49% this year, as Iranian liberals…
The first round of French regional elections was a disappointment for both Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) as well as President Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche (LREM). RN obtained 19% of…