Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP) formed a new government with the SPD’s Olaf Scholz replacing Angela Merkel as chancellor. The FDP – whose leader, Christian Lindner, will become…
Highlights Remain neutral on the US dollar. A breakout of the dollar would cause a shift in strategy. Russia’s conflict with the West is heating up now that Germany has delayed the certification of the Nord Stream II pipeline.…
The virtual summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping on Monday evening did not produce a major change in the bilateral relationship. President Biden initiated the meeting with the objective of ensuring that any…
Highlights Geopolitical conflicts point to energy price spikes and could add to inflation surprises in the near term. However, US fiscal drag and China’s economic slowdown are both disinflationary risks to be aware of. …
Results from Tuesday’s US special elections are a warning sign to Democrats and reinforce market expectations that the US Congress will return to gridlock with the 2022 midterm elections. Most notably, Republican Glenn…
Highlights Short-term inflation risk will escalate further if politics causes new supply disruptions. Long-term inflation risk is significant as well. There is a distinct risk of a geopolitical crisis in the Middle East that would…
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service concludes that Democratic bills will feed into short-run inflation risks. A major plot twist in Congress occurred over the past two weeks: corporate and individual tax cuts…