BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the ECB response to a Ukrainian conflict will depend on the nature of the war. In our colleagues’ base case scenario involving a limited assault…
BCA Research is proud to announce a new feature to help clients get the most out of our research: an Executive Summary cover page on each of the BCA Research Reports. We created these summaries to help you quickly capture the main points…
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service upgraded the odds of Russia invading Ukraine from 50% to 75%. Of the 75% war risk, they give 10% odds to Russia conquering all of Ukraine. Ukraine’s economy is small but…
HighlightsUpgrade odds of Russia invading Ukraine from 50% to 75%. The US and allies are transferring arms to Ukraine while seeking alternate energy supply for Europe.Of the 75% war risk, we give 10% odds to Russia conquering all of…
Highlights The Biden administration faces significant risks from outside the US economy – our third “key view” for 2022. The Ukraine conflict brings one external risk to the forefront. These external risks would…
Highlights Our top five “black swan” risks for 2022: Social unrest in China; Russian invasion of all of Ukraine; unilateral Israeli strikes on Iran; a cyber attack that goes kinetic; and a failure of OPEC 2.0. Too early…
Tensions between Russia and the West appear to be escalating. On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden stated that he believes that Russia “will move in” on Ukraine, suggesting that a partial re-invasion is likely. Biden…
Diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions over Ukraine failed last week. The US did not give in to Russian demands that Washington provides assurance that Ukraine does not join NATO and halts defense cooperation with Ukraine. High-…
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service highlights its three key views for this year. 1. From Single-Party Rule To Gridlock: Republicans are highly likely to win back control of the House of…
Highlights This week we highlight key charts for US Political Strategy themes and views in the New Year. For H1 2022, we maintain a pro-cyclical, risk-on approach. We favor industrials, energy, infrastructure, and cyclicals. Foreign…