Executive Summary Wars Don’t Usually Affect Markets For Long  We expect the war in Ukraine to stay within its borders, and therefore to have little impact on global growth. Markets will be volatile, but we recommend…

Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an…

Executive Summary Stronger Capex Than Last Decade  The fog of war continues, but the worst potential outcome for the market—a freeze of Russian energy exports to Europe—has been avoided. Energy inflation is…

Dear client, In addition to this weekly report, we sent you a Special Report from our Geopolitical Strategy service, highlighting the risk from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Kind regards, Chester Executive Summary The Ukraine…

Highlights The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a geopolitical incident that is likely to be limited in scope. A wholesale energy cutoff to Europe is the chief risk to global economic activity, but the sanction response from the US and EU…

Special Report

Executive Summary From Nixon-Mao To Putin-Xi  The geopolitical “big picture” of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the deepening of the Russo-Chinese strategic partnership. While Russia’s economic and…

Special Report

Executive Summary EU-Russia Energy Trade To Persist  Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent it from becoming a defense partner of the US and its allies. It is not likely to attack NATO members, which share a mutual defense treaty…

Special Report

Executive Summary US Policy Uncertainty Rises With ERP  The US is witnessing a rolling political crisis that will escalate again in the 2022-24 election cycle and presents a tail-risk of constitutional fracture. However,…