Executive Summary Our negative view on the summer rally is coming to fruition, with equities falling back on the negative geopolitical, macro, and monetary environment. China is easing policy ahead of its full return to autocratic…
Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator A new equilibrium between NATO, which now includes Sweden and Finland, and Russia needs to be reestablished before geopolitical risks in Europe subside. Russia aims to inflict a…
Executive Summary Inflationary Pressures To Fade The biggest problem for the European economy is surging inflation. Inflation has eroded household real disposable income and is hurting consumption. Inflation is set to…
Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator Russia and Germany have begun cutting off each other’s energy in a major escalation of strategic tensions. The odds of Finland and Sweden joining NATO have shot up. A halt…
As expected, French President Emmanuel Macron secured a second term in the final round of the French presidential elections on Sunday, beating far-right rival Marine Le Pen by 58.5% to 41.5%. EUR/USD benefitted from a brief…
Dear Client, Next week, there will not be a written European Investment Strategy report; instead we will host a Webcast on April 26 with Chester Ntonifor, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategist. Regards, Mathieu Savary Executive…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…
Results of the first round of the French presidential election show France’s centrist President Emmanuel Macron ahead with 28% of the votes, while far-right challenger Marine Le Pen captured second place with 23% of the…
Executive Summary Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed its custom index by a robust +48bps in Q1/2022 – an impressive performance given the significant uncertainties stemming from the Ukraine war, surging commodity…