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Financial Markets

Indonesia: Undergoing A Regime Change?

There is an ongoing regime shift in Indonesia: SOEs will be used to drive economic growth. Bank loans will accelerate, but their profit margins will shrink. Despite higher nominal growth, Indonesian equity prices in US dollar terms will not see a sustainable bull market. Downside risks to currency and upside risks to domestic bond yields have also increased.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik, Arthur Budaghyan
Europe: Buy The Rumor, Sell The News
Our European investment strategists recommend underweighting European equities over the next three-to-six months, favoring defensives like telecoms, which may also benefit from reform potential. The rally in European equities looks overstretched, with…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Consumer Confidence Craters, Inflation Expectations Spike
A sharp drop in consumer confidence adds to signs that a consumption slowdown is coming, threatening both US and global growth. Yet rising short-term inflation expectations will keep central banks cautious, weighing on long-term yields even as growth weakens.…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Higher Inflation Volatility Demands New Playbook
The years ahead will be more complex for investors. Inflation expectations and its leading indicators will matter as much as realized inflation, and rates volatility is likely to remain structurally higher. This calls for increasing strategic allocations to…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Downgrading Brazilian Equities
Our Emerging Market strategists downgraded Brazilian equities as public debt dynamics deteriorate and macro fundamentals weaken. While they previously maintained a neutral stance despite being bearish on the Bovespa, the risks have become too pronounced to…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Long Europe/Short US: Too Far, Too Fast
Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the seeds of its own demise. Markets price expectations efficiently but lack perfect foresight, making data surprises key to price action.…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
China's Housing Market: Still Adrift In Troubled Waters
Our China strategists published a quick note on China’s property market following the release of housing data earlier this week. China’s housing market is showing early signs of stabilization after three years of crisis, though a full recovery remains…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The Politics Of... Mess Around And Find Out
Special Report

In this Special Report, GeoMacro Strategist Marko Papic argues that the Trump administration is flirting with high risk / low reward. Triggering a recession may be the end goal of the White House, but borrowing costs are not declining as much as they ought to be while President Trump’s political capital is on thin ice. Most recessions are caused by a “murder weapon.” It is rare that this weapon can be holstered. This may be one of those times.

GeoMacro Strategy, Global Investment Strategy, US Political Strategy by Marko Papic
South Africa: The Coalition Government Honeymoon Is Over

The South African government seems to believe that some fiscal retrenchment can stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. But that’s a misconception. The country will need draconian spending cuts to achieve this.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
European Defense: Buy The Rumor, Sell The Facts?
Our European strategists looked at the European defense sector after the massive rally following Germany’s fiscal turnaround. The rally in European defense stocks, up over 100% since their March 2023 recommendation, is overextended. While the long-term…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier

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