Financial Markets
Results from the NFIB survey suggest that optimism among small business owners improved slightly in July. However, at 89.9 the Optimism Index remains extremely depressed (below its long-term average of 98.0) and the details of the report underscore that…
Recent data releases suggest that Japan’s domestic recovery remains lackluster. Japanese machine tool orders decelerated from 17.1% y/y to 5.5% y/y in July, prolonging the past years’ downtrend. The slowdown has been particularly pronounced among foreign…
Nonfarm productivity contracted by 4.6% on an annualized q/q basis in Q2, following a downwardly revised 7.4% decline in the previous quarter, and marking the largest two-quarter contraction in productivity on record. Meanwhile, Unit Labor Costs (ULC) grew by…
Results from the New York Fed’s latest Consumer Survey suggest that the Fed’s credibility is improving. Inflation expectations declined across the board. Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations dropped 0.6 percentage points to 6.2% and 0.4…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service recommends increasing exposure to yield curve flattening in the US, UK, and core Europe (Germany and France). Bond markets were getting way ahead of themselves in pricing in aggressive rate cuts in 2023,…
On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the outlook for Italian sovereign debt from stable to negative, citing (1) risks to the implementation of structural reforms stemming from the political environment (2) headwinds to the economy from energy supply issues and (3)…
The latest data on consumer credit is a testament to the resilience of US consumption. Borrowing surged by $40.2 billion in June – significantly above the $27 billion increase anticipated and second only to March’s $47.1 billion increase. Both revolving…
Chinese export growth was surprisingly resilient in July. Exports grew by 18% y/y in US dollar terms, beating expectations they would decelerate to 14.1% y/y. Meanwhile, import growth disappointed at 2.3% y/y versus expectations of 4.0%. These dynamics lifted…
President Joe Biden’s average monthly approval rating appears to have stabilized, albeit at low levels. The Roe v Wade saga, the rally around the flag amid the Taiwan crisis, and the killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri have all contributed to this…
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service expects American households to continue to dip into savings to maintain trend consumption, but inflation has eaten up some of the dry powder. The savings rate has declined considerably so far in 2022,…