BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that BTPs have become attractive for long-term rather than short-term investors. The differences between the neutral rates across the Eurozone are the key…
The German Ifo Business Climate Index fell to a 23-month low of 88.6 in July from 92.2, against expectations of a milder deterioration. The current assessment and expectations sub-indices both fell by 1.7 and 5.2 points,…
On Friday, Russia and Ukraine signed UN-backed agreements in Turkey that will enable Ukraine to restart exports of grains that have been blocked by Russian forces in Black Sea ports since the start of the conflict earlier this…
The ECB is in somewhat of a pickle. Prices are surging, which has prompted the central bank to start its rate hike cycle with a bang on Thursday – raising rates by an outsized 50bps. However, these price pressures…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial…
The ECB took a big step in normalizing monetary policy on Thursday. It hiked interest rates for the first time in 11 years, raising the deposit rate by 50bps to zero. The central bank noted that upside risks to inflation and…
Executive Summary Upside Oil Price Risk Dominates Despite global recession fears and uncertainty over Russia’s retaliation for the EU embargo against its exports, oil markets will continue to tighten. After breaching…
UK headline CPI inflation reached a fresh four-decade high of 9.4% y/y in June, following 9.1% in May and slightly above the anticipated 9.3%. Gasoline and food continue to be the largest drivers of headline CPI. However, the…
Flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which transports Russian natural gas to Germany have been halted since July 11 for scheduled maintenance. Although Thursday marks the end of this annual maintenance period, there is still…