On the surface, the Eurozone Sentix sent a positive signal about investor confidence. The headline index rose from -11.1 to -8.7, beating expectations of a more muted improvement to -10.1. However, a five-point rise in the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service European core CPI inflation is near its peak. Even the recent surge in food inflation is near its end. European food inflation is elevated and is…
European inflation has further downside and core CPI will soon begin to fall too. However, European growth will remain soggy in Q2. What does this environment mean for investors?
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the increase in the cost of capital caused by the recent period of stress in global banks will hurt European growth. The European stock market is at risk…
High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
The European Commission’s business and consumer surveys reveal that the recent bank stress did not weigh heavily on sentiment. Economic, consumer, industrial and services confidence were all broadly unchanged in March.…
It is a big mistake to think that rate cuts or lower bond yields will ease credit conditions. Quite the contrary. After an aggressive tightening of monetary policy, the first rate cuts always coincide with much tighter credit…
The recent uncertainty regarding the health of the banking systems in the US and Europe is not having any material impact on overall financial conditions or economic sentiment. The aggressive rate cut expectations, especially in the…