Special Report

Three macro "policy puts" are in jeopardy of disappearing or, at the very least, being repriced. Fed Put: Rising inflation has made the Fed more reluctant to back off from rate hikes at the first hint of slower growth or…

Special Report

Highlights As interest rates rise, investors are looking for the leveraged pressure points in the global economy to identify the sectors most likely to show strain. We previously identified the U.S. corporate bond market as a definite…

Highlights Fed: The Fed delivered a confidently hawkish rate hike last week, but its projections for growth and, more importantly, inflation appear too cautious. With the market still not fully priced to the Fed's interest rate…

Highlights Global Inflation has upside on a cyclical basis, but this narrative is well known and investors have already placed their bets accordingly, buying inflation protection in a wide swath of markets. However, global growth has…

Special Report

Highlights After having written about the role of the U.S. yield curve in forecasting recessions, we are devoting this Special Report to addressing the widely asked question on the effectiveness of the yield curve in determining asset…

Highlights The following four investment themes are likely to play out over the next couple of years: The yield shortfall on German long-dated bunds versus the equivalent U.S. T-bonds and U.K. gilts will narrow, one way or the other…

Special Report

Highlights Contagion risk from Italy to its European peers presents a buying opportunity; Italian policymakers are constrained by the bond market and avoiding brinkmanship; In a game of chicken between Berlin and Rome, Chancellor…

Special Report

Highlights Since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 there have been five major episodes where U.S. dollar moves were not uniform across all currencies. These episodes share common features: a rallying broad trade-weighted U.S…

Highlights One of Europe's major success stories is the structural and broad-based increase in female labour participation rates. The trend is set to continue for the next decade. Stay overweight the Personal Products sector as a…