UK headline CPI inflation surged to a 30-year high of 6.2% y/y in February, beating estimates of 6.0%. Similarly, core CPI inflation jumped by 0.8 percentage points to 5.2% while the retail price index rose 8.2% y/y following 7.8…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that European headline inflation will rise further before peaking this summer. European headline inflation is set to exceed 7% this summer and core CPI will…
Executive Summary Ebbing Stagflation Fear Will Prompt Rerating European inflation will rise further before peaking this summer. Core CPI will reach between 2.8% and 3.2% by year-end before receding. The combination of…
Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2% The neutral rate of interest is 3%-to-4% in the United States. This is substantially higher than the market estimate of around 2%. It…
BoE communication was cautious on Thursday, signaling a need to balance between both upside pressures on inflation and downside risks to growth (see Country Focus). Regarding the latter, the UK economic outlook faces multiple…
As expected, the Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 25bps to 0.75% on Thursday. However, the central banks’ messaging signaled a somewhat cautious stance. The MPC stated that some further modest tightening in monetary…
The ZEW indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany collapsed by a massive 93.6 points in March. At -39.3, the latest reading disappointed expectations of a smaller (but still sizable) drop to 5. Notably, the decline from…
Breakeven inflation rates on 10-year inflation-linked bonds have moved significantly higher since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the UK, 10-year breakevens have surged by 48bps over this period. This increase in…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, fossil fuels and base metals markets will remain tight, and will get tighter in order to allocate increasingly scarce supply with rapidly growing demand…