On Wednesday, Germany activated an emergency law to manage gas supplies in the event that natural gas inflows from Russia are cutoff. This move comes after the G7 rejected Russia’s demand for gas payment in rubles. Germany…
German and Spanish CPI inflation surprised to the upside in March. In Spain, harmonized consumer prices soared 9.8% y/y – significantly above the anticipated 8.4% y/y increase and February’s 7.6% y/y rate.…
Optimism about a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire supported the rally in global equities on Tuesday. During talks in Istanbul, Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin promised to reduce military activity near Kyiv and…
Executive Summary Refreshing Our Tactical Trade List Our current list of tactical trade recommendations centers around two broad themes that predate the Ukraine conflict – rising global inflation expectations and…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European yields will sport a structural uptrend for the remainder of the decade. Three forces support this assertion: Profligate governments: Europe…
Executive Summary Expansion In European Defense European yields have significant upside on a structural basis. European government spending will remain generous, which will boost domestic demand; meanwhile, lower global…
The German Ifo Business Climate Indicator dropped 7.7 points to 90.8 in March, falling below expectations of a smaller decline to 94.2. Both the Current Assessment and – to a greater extent – the Expectations…
The economic expansion is in a more advanced stage in the US than it is in the Eurozone. US GDP recovered to its Q4 2019 pre-Covid level in the second quarter of 2021, and by the fourth quarter it was 3.2% above where it was…
We do not expect the relief measures announced in UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s spring statement to offset headwinds from rising taxes, higher energy prices, and higher interest rates (see The Numbers).…
Eurozone consumer confidence plunged 10 points to -18.7 in March, falling below estimates of -12.9. The deterioration highlights the negative effect of surging energy prices amid the war in Ukraine. Indeed, earlier this week our…