A soft landing can be achieved but not maintained. We are cutting our tactical recommendation on stocks from overweight to neutral and scaling back our long-duration stance.
Equity markets are starting the year on a weak footing, with the S&P 500 falling by 1.4% in the first two trading days of the year. While it is still early days, the selloff has prompted much ink to be spilled about whether…
The AI craze was the dominant force driving difference in equity sector returns in 2023. Broadly-defined technology sectors were the top three outperformers last year with IT, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary…
China’s equity market stands out as a major underperformer vis-à-vis its global peers in 2023. The 13% drawdown in China’s investable stock price contrasts with the 20% rally in the MSCI ACW Index. It reflects…
The market is excited by the idea that the Fed will cut rates early this year, even without a recession. But is that likely, with inflation still set to be around 2.8% mid-year?
Economists have been consistently revising up their 2024 US GDP forecasts over the past 4 months. The consensus now anticipates US growth to clock in at 1.3% this year. According to the latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed’…
In this final note for the year, we take profits and close several long-term investment positions: Overweights in Insurance and Commercial Services, and underweights in Utilities, and Retail and Commercial REITs.
In Section I, we discuss the implications and potential risks of the Fed’s recent pivot. The near-term implications of the Fed's dovish pivot are likely to continue to be bullish for risky asset prices, and a new high in global stock…
The statement from last week’s Central Economic Work Conference indicates that Chinese authorities are still not considering large-scale stimulus in 2024. Odds are that a full-fledged business cycle recovery in 2024 is unlikely.…
The Republican Party’s odds of winning the 2024 election will benefit, if anything, from state courts’ attempts to exclude President Trump from primary or general election ballots. Higher odds of a change of ruling party will…