According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European tech stocks could outperform their US counterparts in the last leg of the rally. The tech sector is in a bubble in advanced economies. While it…
Japanese equities have outperformed their global peers since September 2022 in common currency terms. Over this period, the Nikkei 225 and the TOPIX posted gains of close to 50%. A weak yen has boosted Japanese multinationals…
The S&P 500 forged a new all-time high last Thursday and ended the week with a 4.9% year-to-date gain, extending the rally that started in late-October. Interestingly, the recent increase comes even though investors have…
Households have ramped up their cash holdings since the end of 2019, but the absence of an empirical link between cash and consumption leads us to believe that we’ve modestly overestimated the risk of consumer-driven overheating.
Reported earnings for Q4-2023 were rather underwhelming and prone to issues that we have identified over the past few months: Growth is concentrated in just a few sectors and companies, while the profitability of a broad swath of the…
Signs that we are entering the last phase of a bubble are building up. Can European equities benefit from a new tech mania?
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, although the next recession is likely to be mild-to-moderate, the ensuing financial avalanche will be more severe. Valuations are highly stretched and hopes…
According to the latest figures from FactSet, 59 of the 85 S&P 500 companies that have issued EPS guidance for Q1 2024 have guided lower. At 69%, the share of companies issuing negative EPS guidance is above both the 5-year…
Recessions often begin seemingly out of the blue when the economy’s temperature falls enough to set in motion adverse feedback loops that cause unemployment to rise. We expect the US economy to suddenly freeze over towards the end of…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the diminishing pace of disinflation in the US could pose a threat to US share prices in the near term. In the medium term, the key risk to US share prices is…