The Chinese yuan was among the best performing currencies on Thursday after authorities implemented measures to support the yuan. Specifically, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set its daily fixing at a stronger-than-…
Taiwanese export orders sent a pessimistic signal about the global trade cycle. The contraction deepened in June from -17.6% y/y to -24.9% y/y – delivering a downside surprise to expectations of a 20.3% y/y decline. The…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that the failure of EM stocks, Asian currencies and commodities to stage a broad-based outperformance is consistent with their macro thesis that global trade/…
The South African rand has been a key winner amid the recent improvement in risk sentiment. Notably, the ZAR's 10.9% appreciation versus the US dollar since May 25 has made it the best performing major currency over this…
In this report, we dissect which markets have broken out and which ones have not, and reflect what this entails for our global macro view. Also, we analyze how the S&P 500 has been taking its cues from a change in the inflation…
China’s slowdown confirms BCA’s Geopolitical Strategists’ view that persisting structural challenges would cause China’s economic reopening to disappoint (see The Numbers). In this context, Canada and…
Singapore’s trade data continue to send a pessimistic signal about global manufacturing conditions. The year-over-year contraction in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) deepened to -15.5% y/y in June from -14.8% y/y –…
On the surface, the latest batch of Chinese economic data released on Monday shows a deterioration in consumer spending with retail sales growth slowing sharply from 12.7% y/y to 3.1% y/y in June – slightly below consensus…
BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service concludes that strong EM demand coupled with OPEC+’s production cuts will help boost oil prices in the coming months. EM oil demand growth continues to power…
China’s June export data sent a negative signal about global manufacturing conditions. The -12.4% y/y drop in the dollar value of Chinese exports fell below expectations of a -10% y/y decline, registering the steepest…