According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should focus on fluctuations in final demand rather than inventories. A common narrative endorsed by many market participants is that inventory…
Contrary to the prevalent belief in the global investment community, goods/merchandise inventories in the US and East Asia are rather elevated. Financial markets respond to final demand fluctuations, not inventory restocking. Global…
China’s push to dramatically expand its copper-refining capacity will be complemented by further vertical integration of mining assets. However, surplus refining capacity will push treatment and refining charges lower in the short…
According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, the Chilean peso’s depreciation is already quite advanced. Over the next few months, the CLP will remain under downward pressure due to a likely…
In the recently held Polish general elections, the ruling Law & Justice Party (PiS) lost power. Chances are that a coalition led by the Civic Platform party will form a government next month. The new coalition ran on a pro…
To the extent that Taiwanese export orders act as a bellwether for global trade dynamics, we often monitor the release to gain a sense of the state of the manufacturing cycle. On this front, the October update provided a positive…
Global market sentiment has improved notably since late-October. In the equity space, DM and EM stocks have gained 8.5% and 7.8% respectively since October 26. Regarding currencies, the counter-cyclical DXY index has lost 2.2% so…
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global manufacturing activity. As such, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are a bellwether for global growth. Singapore’s…
In this report, we evaluate the risk to carry trades in the coming months.