Elections
Dear Client, We are sending you our Quarterly Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of the year and beyond. We will also be hosting a webcast on Thursday, October…
Highlights Senate Republicans would be suicidal not to agree to a fiscal relief bill before the election. Democrats are still offering a $2.2 trillion package. Grassroots Republican voters will forgive Republicans for blowing out the budget deficit but…
Highlights The great political surprises of 2016 are approaching key deadlines on November 3 and December 31. Investors should not let Brexit take their eye off the US election. Globalization will retreat faster under Trump regardless of what happens in…
Recommended Allocation
Monthly Portfolio Update: Can Monetary Policy Alone Propel The Market…
The State Of Play…
Highlights President Trump is making a comeback in our quantitative election model. An upgrade from our 35% odds of a Trump win is on the horizon, pending a fiscal relief bill. The Fed’s pursuit of “maximum employment,” the necessities of the…
Highlights US-China relations in 2020 consist of a gentleman’s agreement to keep the Phase One trade deal in place and aggressive maneuvering in every other policy area. Stimulus is unlikely to be curtailed in the US or China yet, which means…
Highlights The stock market can apparently ignore the intensifying US-China conflict as long as massive monetary and fiscal stimulus continues. Hence the ongoing “stimulus hiccup” is a big problem. Ultimately a stimulus bill will pass, but risks are…
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s picking Senator Kamala Harris of California as his running mate is not a surprise. It does not change the 2020 election equation – vice presidents rarely do and she does not hail from a swing state. Still, the pick prevents…
Highlights Ultimately the US Congress will pass a major stimulus bill, but short-term risks to the equity rally are elevated. President Trump’s executive actions are not sufficient stimulus in the absence of an act of Congress. Trump’s opinion polling…