Economy
The US November jobs report was mixed. Payrolls rose by 227k vs. an upwardly revised 36k in October, leaving the 3-month moving average at 173k. The unemployment and underemployment rates however rose 0.1% to 4.2% and 7.8%, respectively. The labor force…
German factory orders decreased less than expected in October, falling 1.5% m/m after rising 7.2% in September. Excluding major orders, which often distort the overall picture, core new orders rose 0.1%, after rising 2.7% a month prior. Despite the…
OPEC+ extended its production cuts for the third time, and lengthened the period over which it plans to bring spare capacity back online. Oil prices continue to trade near the bottom of their trading range despite the announcement. The decision aims to…
Our GeoMacro Strategy service published their 2025 outlook, and they see three peaks shaping the year: Peak fiscal, peak-deglobalization, and peak geopolitical risk. In 2024, our colleagues’ bullish economic outlook proved accurate in the first half, while…
Our European Investment Strategy and GeoMacro Strategy teams published a joint report, digging into the structural challenges behind Europe’s economic underperformance, while pointing out to potential turnaround opportunities. Europe’s prolonged…
The November ISM Services PMI missed expectations, declining to 52.1 from 56 in October. All subcomponents declined, with new orders falling from 57.4 to 53.7. Employment also weakened but remains in expansion, while price pressures were roughly unchanged.…
The November Caixin services PMI ticked down to 51.5, which along with a rising manufacturing PMI pushed the composite up to 52.3 from 51.9. Components such as new orders and employment also ticked down, and output prices fell to 49.6. Services also weakened…
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a modestly growing economy imbued with post-election optimism, while highlighting some caution about employment. The latest Beige Book is in line with other sentiment indicators showing modest growth but increased…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists published their monthly tactical asset allocation report and foresee a change of trend for 2025. “Thin is back in” for government budgets, growth, and valuations. The post-COVID recovery was marked by government…
South Korea is undergoing political turmoil, with President Yoon attempting to declare martial law. The situation is fluid and can change quickly, but there are a few investment takeaways. As we pointed a few weeks back, BCA expects geopolitical tensions to…