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Economy

January Survey Results: More Optimistic
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted last week, we asked our readers about their outlook for global equities. Notably, 57% of the respondents noted that relative to three months ago, the 12-month outlook for global equities has improved, which…
Daily Insights
Are Easing Financial Conditions Good Or Bad?
US financial conditions have been easing since mid-October and are now back in accommodative territory. The equity rally, weakening dollar, lower bond yields and tighter credit spreads have all contributed to looser financial conditions in the US…
Daily Insights
It’s Not Always What They Say, But How They Say It

The Fed’s actions at its meeting last Wednesday were no surprise – downshifting to 25 basis points while guiding for more hikes was widely expected – but Chair Powell’s newly conciliatory tone at the press conference helped to spark a two-day equity rally. We remain overweight equities, expecting the S&P 500 to rally into the mid-4,000s at some point in the first half.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Better Than It Seemed

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Global Service Sector Activity Rebounds
The ISM PMI delivered a positive signal about service sector conditions in the US. The headline index jumped six points to 55.2 – returning to expansionary territory and beating expectations of a milder increase to 50.5. The details of the release were all…
Daily Insights
Is Good News Bad News (Again)?
The US Jobs report delivered good news about labor market conditions in January. The 517 thousand surge in nonfarm payrolls was nearly triple the anticipated 188 thousand gain and the largest monthly increase since July 2022. Increases in leisure &…
Daily Insights
Green Shoots?
Some of the recent data have been less bleak about manufacturing conditions in Asia. In particular, at 38.3 in January, the New Export Orders index from the Taiwanese Manufacturing PMI is off its September 2022 low of 34.2. Similarly, the South Korean New…
Daily Insights
So Much For China’s Charm Offensive
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the demographic and property bust combined with US-China geopolitical competition have permanently damaged China’s growth potential. The year has started with several confirmations of the team’s…
Daily Insights
Month In Review: Three Major Central Banks Jawbone The Dollar

This week, we articulate what the actions of the three major central banks that met (Fed, ECB and BoE) mean for currency markets. This is within the context of our analysis of the latest data releases in the G10, that allows us to calibrate currency strategy.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Not So Fast ...

The risk-on rally is challenging our annual forecast so we are cutting some losses. But we still think central banks and geopolitics will combine to reverse the rally later this year.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken

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