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Economy

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CoreMacro
Taking The Pulse Of China’s Capital Flows
Special Report

China’s capital outflows will likely remain substantial at least through the next few quarters. This wave of capital outflows will likely be more chronic, albeit less acute than the 2015-16 episode. Persistent capital outflows will exert downward pressure on the RMB.

Qingyun Xu
2 years ago
China
Essentials
US Retail Sales Contract In October
The US retail sales release delivered a mixed signal about US consumption. Although the headline figure contracted by 0.1% m/m in October, it was better than expectations of a 0.3% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase was revised up from 0.7% m/m to…
2 years ago
Essentials
China: Heed The Signal From Positive Data Surprises?
On the surface, the acceleration in Chinese retail sales and industrial production growth in October suggests that the economy is holding up. Retail sales expanded by 7.6% y/y last month – beating expectations of 7.0% y/y following a 5.5% y/y increase in…
2 years ago
Essentials
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Fade The Rebound
The New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index unexpectedly returned to positive territory in November, climbing 14 points to its highest level since April. The headline index suggests that manufacturing activity is expanding in New York State – a positive…
2 years ago
Essentials
China's Impossible Trinity
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Chinese policymakers are facing the Impossible Trinity. When faced with rapid currency depreciation in August-September, the PBoC deliberately tightened liquidity and steered interest rates…
2 years ago
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FICC
A Plausible Path Back To 2% Inflation: Revisiting Our TIPS Golden Rule
Special Report

This week’s Special report revisits our TIPS Golden Rule. We provide a 12-month inflation forecast and discuss how it impacts our TIPS view.

Robert Timper
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
The ‘Hidden’ World Recession Of 2022 And Why It Matters Today

The latest ‘nowcast’ for world economic growth in the fourth quarter has plunged to just 1.2 percent, marking the cusp of another world recession. One important implication is that expectations for oil demand growth and industrial metal demand growth are way too optimistic.

Dhaval Joshi
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
Beware Of China’s Stealth Liquidity Tightening

Many commentators have attributed the latest increase in Chinese interest rates to an improving economy, the large issuance of government bonds, the tax payments season, and other technical factors. Yet, these explanations are missing the key point: the PBoC has steered interbank rates higher to defend the currency. Higher borrowing costs are the last thing the mainland economy now needs.

Arthur Budaghyan
2 years ago
China
Essentials
Soft US Inflation Cements The Fed's Pause
US Treasury yields fell sharply following yesterday’s soft October CPI report, and investors have now officially priced out all remaining rate hikes from the yield curve. In fact, the fed funds futures curve is priced for a 25 basis point rate cut by next…
2 years ago
Essentials
US Small Businesses Are Concerned
To the extent that US small businesses are typically more exposed to domestic economic conditions than larger firms, results of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends survey are instructive. One important trend is that the October survey results…
2 years ago

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