Economy
US durable goods orders delivered a negative surprise on Wednesday. New orders for manufactured durable goods dropped by 5.4% m/m in October, below consensus estimates of a 3.2% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase was revised down slightly to 4.0%…
In the recently held Polish general elections, the ruling Law & Justice Party (PiS) lost power. Chances are that a coalition led by the Civic Platform party will form a government next month. The new coalition ran on a pro-European Union (EU) platform…
Confidence is on the mend in the Euro Area. The rebounding ZEW growth expectations index reveals that investors are becoming more optimistic. The German IFO's business climate index inched higher in October for the first time since April, suggesting that…
Global equities have had a stellar 2023, rising by 16% year-to-date and outperforming global bonds by roughly the same amount. However, the large concentration of US stocks in the Magnificent Seven has called into question the legitimacy of this rally. There…
According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, the Chilean peso’s depreciation is already quite advanced. Over the next few months, the CLP will remain under downward pressure due to a likely global risk-off move. EM currencies will…
We investigate the recent increase in unemployment with the goal of determining whether it is flagging an imminent US recession.
Poland’s inflation will stay elevated. And yet, its return to the European mainstream has improved its financial market outlook. Accordingly, we are recommending new trades on Polish equity, fixed income, and currency.
The minutes of the Fed's latest FOMC meeting revealed that there is a consensus among policymakers to proceed carefully. Another rate increase is appropriate only if "incoming inflation indicated that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective was…
After dipping into negative territory between June and early August, the Global Economic Surprise Index has since rebounded, signalling an improvement in economic momentum. Initially, this rebound was isolated to the US. However, the trend has been broadening…
Inflation has been in a downtrend for a few months now, which has translated into fading corporate pricing power. With wage growth still strong, and the cost of energy on the rise, the degree of companies’ pricing power differentiates their ability to protect…