Economy

Special Report

On the one hand, China’s copper intake boomed last year despite the travails of the mainland economy and shrinking property construction. On the other hand, global copper supply mushroomed despite persistent worries about supply shortages. This report uncovers this puzzle and elaborates on the outlook for copper prices. The conclusion is that red metal prices are still vulnerable.

2 years ago

China

Essentials

US January JOLTS Report: Persistent Resilience

The US January JOLTS data released yesterday was in line with expectations, with job openings clocking in at 8.86 million versus a downwardly-revised 8.89 million in December. Importantly, US job openings are likely to continue trending lower in February…

2 years ago

Essentials

The Bank Of Canada Remains On A Dovish Path

The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate steady at 5% for the sixth consecutive meeting yesterday, in line with expectations. The BoC, which has changed its communication policy to now provide a press conference after every meeting, reasserted the need…

2 years ago

Essentials

Germany's Economic Challenges Amid Eurozone Resilience

BCA’s European Investment Strategy team continues to expect the German economy to trail that of the rest of Europe. Since 2020, Germany has fallen behind, with its real GDP lagging that of the broader Eurozone by 5%. The contribution of consumption to GDP…

2 years ago

Essentials

Investors Should Not Chase The Rally

Our US Equity Strategy service released their Sector Chart Pack where they took stock of the recent earnings season and developments in the S&P 500. They observed that this February marked the strongest performance in the S&P 500 over the past nine Februarys…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Expected Inflation Surges, Just As Expected

Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered inflation. We discuss what this means for central banks in the US, UK, euro area, and Japan. Plus: bitcoin’s structural uptrend to $100,000+ is still intact.

2 years ago

Essentials

A Closer Look At February's US Services PMI

The US ISM Services PMI declined slightly to 52.6 in February, just below expectations of 53. Overall, the service sector continues to expand, however, the recent ISM suggests that growth is slowing down. In fact, most of the components of the ISM worsened,…

2 years ago

Essentials

The Case For Norway

Data out of Norway is becoming increasingly positive, and there is a strong investment case to be made for the country, with bullish implications for both equities and the currency: Retail sales remain robust and are catching up to the improvement we have…

2 years ago

Essentials

The Fed Doesn't Need To Raise Rates To Cause A Large Hawkish Shock

We noted in a previous Insight that recent comments from Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, may reflect a growing realization among policymakers that they have inadvertently caused a significant easing in financial conditions.…

2 years ago

Essentials

Dax 40 Reaches New Highs: How Much Further Upside?

The stock market of the Eurozone’s largest economy keeps grinding higher with the DAX 40 closing at new highs last week. Since its October low, the index of German blue-chip companies advanced by 20%. Does this rally have legs? On a relative basis, German…

2 years ago

Economy

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