Economic Growth
We highlighted in a recent Insight that positive economic surprises are prompting economists to revise up their US economic growth expectations. The Goldilocks narrative is supporting the rally in risk assets. However, results of the January NFIB survey…
The German economy was a laggard at the end of last year, posting a 0.3% q/q real GDP contraction in Q4 2023 while the broader Eurozone economy stagnated. Importantly, while economists have been revising up their 2024 forecasts for the US economy, they have…
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service created a sector selection scorecard based on performance of sectors under various macroeconomic regimes. The current macroeconomic backdrop is characterized by the following regimes: Impending rate cuts: While a few…
Indian economic data releases delivered a positive signal on Monday. CPI inflation slowed from 5.7% y/y to 5.1% y/y in January – within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 2-6% target range. Meanwhile, industrial production growth accelerated from 2.4% y/y to…
Expectations that the Fed will successfully deliver a soft landing for the US economy remains the dominant narrative. Since August, economists have been revising up their 2024 US GDP forecasts with the consensus now anticipating US growth to clock in at 1.6%…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, barring a pullback in global share prices, Korean tech stock prices will likely have more upside this year. The memory chip market will improve in 2024, characterized by a further rebound in…
The German economy has lagged that of Europe. This trend will continue, but does it mean German equities will underperform further?
China will continue to suffer from a “triple crisis”. Though there could be a tactical bounce, cyclically we still recommend underweighting Chinese equities.
Over the past few months we have been highlighting that there are some budding signs of a recovery in global manufacturing activity. Most notably, the new orders-to-inventories ratio of Sweden’s manufacturing PMI has been rebounding. To the extent that Sweden…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s revised forecast is centered on a recession starting in late 2024 or early 2025. The strong pace of US growth has continued into early 2024. Preliminary estimates from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model foresee…