Highlights Clients countered our opinion that China’s economy has reached its cyclical peak. However, we have already incorporated the supporting facts into our analysis so they will not alter our cyclical outlook for the economy…
Highlights After staging a tentative rebound in the first three months of the year, the US dollar has resumed its weakening trend. We expect the greenback to drift lower over the next 12 months, as global growth momentum rotates from…
Highlights Higher copper prices will follow in the wake of China's surge in steel demand, which lifted Shanghai steel futures to an all-time high just under 5,200 RMB/MT earlier this month, as building and infrastructure projects…
Highlights Duration: The pace of rate hikes currently priced into the market is reasonable. However, we see strong odds that market expectations will move higher in the coming months, the result of continued strong economic data and…
Highlights Chart of the WeekThe Bond Bear Mantle Being Passed To Canada? US Treasuries: The steady climb of US bond yields has left longer-maturity Treasuries in an oversold position. However, underlying growth and inflation…
Highlights Stronger global growth in the wake of continued and expected fiscal and monetary stimulus, and progress against COVID-19 are boosting oil demand assumptions by the major data suppliers for this year. We lifted our…
Highlights On a timeframe of a few years, a net deflationary shock is a near-certainty even if we do not know its precise nature or its precise timing. Hence, investors must build such a deflationary shock or shocks into their long-…
Dear Client, Next week I will be hosting a series of Roundtable discussions with BCA’s clients in both Europe and Asia. Our next report published on April 28th will be a recap of my observations from these meetings. Best regards…