East Europe & Central Asia
Highlights Our COVID Unrest Index reveals that Turkey, the Philippines, Brazil, and South Africa are the major emerging markets most at risk of significant social unrest. China, Russia, Thailand, and Malaysia are the least at risk – in the short run.…
Highlights The collapse in oil prices supercharges the geopolitical risks stemming from the global pandemic and recession. Low oil prices should discourage petro-states from waging war, but Iran may be an important exception. Russian instability is one…
Highlights A World Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (WOPEC) looks set to emerge after today’s OPEC 2.0 video conference to discuss production cuts in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the market-share war between the leaders of the…
Highlights The odds of an emergency meeting of OPEC 2.0 to get supply under control are growing, based on the repeated overtures from Russian officials providing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) an opening to resume talks on their production-management…
Highlights The pandemic has a negative impact on households and has not peaked in the US. But a depression is likely to be averted. Our market-based geopolitical risk indicators point toward a period of rising political turbulence across the world. We…
Highlights Rapidly changing news flows are forcing oil markets to recalibrate supply-demand fundamentals continuously. This will keep volatility at or close to recent record highs (Chart of the Week). The demand shock from COVID-19 accounts for ~ 65% of…
Highlights In contrast to the low-inflation experience of the euro area and other developed market countries over the past several years, the structural backdrop has and will continue to favor inflation in central European (CE) economies. Over the coming…
Highlights As the global economy moves toward shut-down, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Russia will be forced to end their market-share war and focus on shoring up their economies and tending to their populations’ welfare. Governments worldwide…
Highlights Our short EM equity index recommendation has reached our target and we are booking profits on this trade. The halt to economic activity will produce a global recession that will be worse than the one that took place in late 2008. We continue…
Highlights While not exactly conciliatory, Russian officials are signaling they will re-consider the declaration of a market-share war with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). KSA upped its shock-and-awe rhetoric promising to lift maximum sustainable…